Fragmenting Latino vote now a wildcard in elections

Latino voters aren't realigning — they're fragmenting. Consultants and pollsters tell Axios that after moving toward Donald Trump in 2024, the nation's fastest-growing electorate is splintering into competing political identities, with no single partisan anchor after decades as a reliably Democratic bloc. Why it matters: This fracture helped reshape the 2024 election map — and it's one of the biggest wildcards in 2026 and 2028, even as the economy and Trump's aggressive immigration enforcement have given tailwinds to Democrats. "It's a dealignment. It's not a realignment," Mike Madrid, a GOP consultant and author of "The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy," tells Axios. He said Latinos — an ethnically diverse group that makes up 15% of the U.S. electorate — now have the least party loyalty of any major voting group, making them the bloc most likely to identify as independents. The intrigue: Based on analyses of election data and interviews with political consultants, Axios has identified three distinct segments of Latino voters in 2026: MAGA Hispanics, Movement Progressives and Disillusioned Nonvoters. 1. MAGA Hispanics align with Trump-era Republican politics, often driven by economic populism, cultural conservatism and anti-establishment sentiment rather than traditional GOP ideology. This group includes working-class men, small-business owners and evangelical or Catholic voters. They emphasize order, masculinity, religion and skepticism toward elites. They get much of their political information through YouTube, Spanish-language radio, WhatsApp and podcasts. 2. Movement Progressives are anchored in left-leaning social and economic movements, including labor rights, racial justice, climate activism and student debt relief. They skew younger, urban and college-educated, and are more likely to be women and to vote. But they're quick to disengage if candidates fall short of stated values. They're politically active online via TikTok, Instagram and activist networks, and are intolerant of perceived political inauthenticity. 3. Disillusioned Nonvoters are politically aware but largely disengaged, often sitting out elections entirely or voting inconsistently. They're overrepresented among working-class, young voters and those who often don't go to the polls. Think barbers, salon owners, ranch hands, bartenders and educational assistants. These voters consume information through YouTube, Facebook, WhatsApp and peer networks, and have little trust in either political party, institutions and traditional media. They're motivated primarily by economic pressure, not ideology — and when they do vote, it's unclear where they lean. Zoom out: Middle-class and affluent Latinos don't sit outside these camps — they sort into them. College-educated professionals often cluster with Movement Progressives, while many entrepreneurs show up in the MAGA lane, for example. What they're saying: "You can't just run one Latino message anymore and expect it to land," Democratic consultant Sisto Abeyta told Axios. "Some voters are fired up. Some are skeptical. Some are barely paying attention at all." Madrid said both parties should stop focusing on what accents to use or what music to play at rallies to try to win over targeted segments of the Latino vote. "Latinos aren't listening to Ranchera music at construction sites as much as they're listening to Joe Rogan's podcast," he said. "We're the only ones who are a true swing vote for rational reasons." Zoom in: The Latino voting bloc has always been more complex than it's often portrayed, from conservative Cuban Americans in South Florida to moderate Puerto Ricans in New York and Hispanics of various ideologies in Texas, California and elsewhere. Surveys have shown many Latino voters drifted to Trump in 2024 because they prioritized the economy, jobs and cost of living over traditional cultural or immigration issues — but that finding wasn't universal across regions and age groups. Recent polling by the Pew Research Center has shown sharply negative assessments of Trump's performance among Latino adults, with nearly 70% disapproving of his job on immigration and the economy. The detention of U.S. citizens, images of aggressive ICE agents and the shooting of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis also have angered Latinos who previously backed Trump, polls show. Trump and other GOP criticism of Puerto Rican megastar Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show doesn't help, Republican analysts told Reuters. Ex-Trump administration official Vianca Rodriguez said the criticism is "going to do us more damage than good" and "shouldn't have been a battle to have been picked culturally." In a Yahoo/YouGov poll, 42% of 1,704 U.S. adults said Bad Bunny "better represents America," compared to 39% who said Trump Feb. 9–12. Editor's note: This story has been updated with an added poll and analyst remarks.